Today is the first of three segments published each year. These are what people are waiting for. Because I go in depth into the weather focusing on what’s happening right now. Not in July, August or September when most of the hyped up, get millions in “click-bait” stuff gets sent out. But November 1. November 15. December 1. These are the three dates you can count on every year for me to give you what you want. And look forward from here based on what we are seeing RIGHT NOW. So let’s dive in.
Weather in October 2023:
Weather in this month tended to be above average with around normal precipitation. Temperatures averaged about 3-6 degrees above normal for October which was warm, with precipitation averaging around 2.5 to 5 inches which in most years would be considered near normal. The huge cold snap that invaded the last few days of October brought the first snowfalls of the season for many locations in Upstate NY, and this turned out to be around 1-2 weeks behind schedule. But the amounts of snowfall from a trace to 2″ in the last few days of October were near normal for the first time in years.
Weather around the North America in October 2023:
Weather tended to be above normal over a lot of the United States and Central America. In Canada though, it was a different story. A much different story. Weather here tended to be below average over a lot of the nation with the most snowfall on the ground on Halloween since at least 2018, if not longer! 2020 and 2018 were relatively close to today with 2019, 2021 and 2022 not even close to today. So even though the US is remaining WARM, the COLD in Canada is building at the highest rate since at least 2018. That in and of itself is a huge positive sign!
Weather for the next 8-14 days:
Below average weather, in other words, cooler than normal temperatures are expected going into the second week of November. So after the first full week of November brings and end to the growing season and a hard freeze all the way to the Gulf Coast and the whole US besides Central and Southern Florida east of the Mississippi River, and after several days of reprieve this weekend, next week the worm shall turn once again. Towards Veteran’s Day (especially November 10-15), below average temperatures are likely over the eastern 1/2 of the US. This spells out, on an about normal time schedule, the first inch of snow, for most of the Northeast and Great Lakes states. This snow doesn’t stick around yet at this time of year, but the fact it is coming in normally around 11/11, is big to me!
Week 3-4 Forecast
This forecast brings temperatures closer to Thanksgiving back to around normal with below normal rainfall around the Northeast including Upstate NY. This may very well be something to watch, but the 3-4 week forecasts are off way more than the 8-14 days are now.
El Nino
What about it? Well it is here and is going strong! We’ve had the strongest El Nino since the last Super El Nino of 2015-16, 1997-98, and 1982-83. All those winters ended up the same with low snowfall in the Northeast US (particularly the interior Northeast). This winter is shaping up to be at the least a MODERATE EL NINO. Does it reach a STRONG EL NINO like the last 3 SUPER EL NINO’S? We still have to wait and see. This is the BIG FACTOR in our winter weather forecasting. Does the graph actually hit 2? Beat 2? Fall just short of it? Wherever that graph falls in the coming weeks to a few months shall determine for sure what kind of winter we are going to have. A few months ago it was heading way past two heading towards a three! That would be near an all time record, if not beyond it. Now we are not even close. So that’s a good sign for this winter as well.
The Bottom Line
There is enough evidence to warrant and/or justify more of a look towards this winter than the last several winters. The last time we had a halfway decent winter was 2018-19. Before that was 2014-15, when from late January through early March we went through the coldest period in our history! Like ever. Like forget ’25, ’34, ’66, the late 70’s, ’94, or ’04. We don’t see anything like that this year. Just in the same we don’t see a mild to warm winter with hardly enough snow to run the sleds. Like ever. So where does that leave us.
In the middle.
First Forecast for 2023-24 Winter
Below Normal Snowfall: 20 Percent
Normal Snowfall: 60 Percent
Above Normal Snowfall: 20 Percent
Below Normal Temperatures: 10 Percent
Normal Temperatures: 60 Percent
Above Normal Temperatures: 30 Percent
Looking Ahead
Don’t worry. I will be keeping a close eye on this stuff over the next month. The El Nino stuff doesn’t come out until the 19th of November. By then and going through Thanksgiving I should have hopefully a better idea on my bottom line.
Remember, I’m going 60% “Near Normal” for Upstate NY. This means 60% that snowfall will be within 20% of normal either way, and temperatures will be within 2 degrees of normal either way. A lot to risk, but here we are. Here are our chips. Lets talk again in 2 weeks.
