Good morning! Thanks for joining us on this New Year’s Eve 2023.
The Great Lakes are as warm now as they have ever been for December 31. This means even if record cold were to come in later this winter, only the coastlines, particularly on Lake Ontario would get iced. Lake Erie with it still remaining in the 40s has a better than 50/50 shot of remaining ice free through the winter, one of few winters to do that. And as you see here: NO SNOW. Not anywhere. Except for an inch here or two there, our entire state is snow and ice free going into 2024.
This sucks. Second warmest December on record with only 2015 beating us. And not by much. So what does January look like?
It’s looking better. Gradually better. Still not in the ranges I am looking for yet, but this is the best I have seen in weeks! After all we were looking at blowtorch for the last three weeks straight! Even seeing “normal” conditions, especially for early January, is a major improvement!
Honestly the first five days of 2024 don’t look all that impressive. We might get an inch of new snow as the ball drops tonight. Might. And that’s that high end. Nothing to a dusting is what most folks will get. Tomorrow and Tuesday will return to sunshine and increasing clouds will prevail for Wednesday. Wednesday Night going into Thursday Morning, a weak disturbance going on by may bring some minor snow showers. Again, we are talking an inch of snow as being the exception rather than the rule here.
That is, until the first weekend of January hits. This is when the overall weather pattern could change. This is when snow may come back. This is when riding opportunities may come back. All of this is only slowly. One element we have been missing is deep cold air, like single digits to below zero. Normal to below normal stuff for January. That’s not on the map yet.
But this is on the map for one week from today. A 983 Nor’easter riding off the Jersey Shore. HELLO! That would automatically put most everywhere east of I-81 into Double Digit territory for snowfall!! And after this Day 7/8 scenario (which is also supported by the GFS though not as greatly, and by ensemble members), it sets off a very busy week 2 of January. More snows follow in not one, not two, but three more times in the next 9 days afterwards. That’s something to talk about!
So hang in there. We keep saying this so many times to hang in there and to ride when we get it because we don’t know how long we will get it for. Not since the winters of 2021 (for 5-6 weeks) and 2015 (for 8 weeks) have we had truly good to excellent riding conditions. And I am taking out my February 2022 trip up to NY and riding up there in mid February before the 40s and 50s invaded and killed your snowpack.
When is it EVER going to be WINTER? And BE WINTER for more than a few weeks? Less and less likely it’s looking like this year. But for now, hope for the best!
Happy New Year!
Rich
