It’s December 1st. It’s the final countdown. And because of all the changes to the weather, particularly in the last week, it has got me thinking. Hard. Will it still just be yet another mild winter? Will it actually go towards “normal”. Will we defy the odds and go to an above average snowfall year? So many questions with so little time. But lets start where November ended.
Lake Effect Event November 27-29
This event proved to be one of the bigger lake effect events. It certainly wasn’t in Buffalo or in it’s southtowns. 2014 and 2022, last year, proved to be way more potent. But these events also turned out to be much more localized. You have 1-2 inches in one town. Next town you had 3-6 feet! Next town after that you were back down to a few inches.
Not this time!
This lake effect event was much larger in size, even though compared to other lake effect events, it was smaller that usual. We had more snow that we had expected over some areas. There were a few we were too high on too. I want to particularly apologize to southern Oswego County who got completely shafted on this one, and are green already tonight.
One of the big cities I base my climatology on is Utica. It’s where I was born and raised. I spent 40 winters of my life there including some of the biggest winters on record. Here the only accumulating snow that fell between the 27th and the 29th was below the 6″ necessary to qualify this month as a “normal” month. In fact over much of the state, below normal would be the rule. Although up in Highmarket with nearly 50 inches of lake effect, most of it fresh, I am sure they would like you to reconsider. For most of the state, it was a below normal month.
As November goes, so goes the rest of the winter.
We had a lake effect dump. We had some snow. We had some cold. We didn’t quite have a normal month but we had enough to where I could say we have had the most since 2018-19. Now that winter was epic for the North Country and the Adirondacks, especially November because that November of 2018 left the mark to beat with several feet of snow! While some of the winter was meh across the lower elevations of Upstate NY, the Tug Hill and the Adirondacks had the best season since 2014-15, and have not even had as close to a season since.
That is where we stand today.
Taking a look at the drought which started to form near Upstate NY (but not quite to), with the weather conditions expected over the next 3 months, the drought is expected to be significantly weaker… if not completely GONE across much of the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast US. The only place where any drought conditions persist and should still persist should be in the Rochester area and the Genesee Valley of Western NY. Otherwise very few areas east of the Mississippi are still expected to have drought conditions within 90 days. Very few had them 90 days ago. So it seems this fall drought was just that… a fall one and not a long term one. With normal precipitation expected, drought conditions should abate and be gone soon.
Between December 6-10, we expect temperatures and precipitation to be above normal. This DOES NOT MEAN it cannot snow anytime during those days. It just means it is much harder to snow, and temperatures will play with amounts more in the lower elevations. The Saskatchewan Screamer on December 6th, 5 days from now, hitting the Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic, should just miss Upstate NY.
The 9th through the 15th of December is also indicating above normal precipitation and above normal temperatures. This does not mean it cannot snow. In fact between December 11-13, in the middle of that path, there was a storm for several runs predicted to be the first Nor’easter of the season. That has gone away, leaning more towards a western runner (Ohio Valley) storm at this time but with still plenty of time to watch. The next Nor’easter threat is December 16-17, which with it being at the edge of the ranges, I would put the chances of something happening on those days much closer to zero than I would it actually happening.
The rest of December 2023 features above normal temperatures with near normal precipitation. Now there are several ways we can script this and several ways we cannot. We can’t say for sure one BIG storm doesn’t come up and mess this up. Or it just stays mild and never gets cold and we are barely keeping snow across the Tug Hill and the Adirondacks. That would be the more likely scenario. But looking through Hannukah to Christmas and New Years, this is what you are expecting.
Looking more specifically at the El Nino over the next several slides, this first graphic shows us right in the middle of the biggest El Nino events since 1950. There are the top 8 events, including this year, being reported over the last 75 years. This and the next several slides will show this and figures. You will see that we are not all dominating hot, but we are not cool either. We have, well, a “mix”.
The El Nino Southern Oscillation Index (ENSO) Index is high here. As of October, it’s at it’s second highest level, with only 1957-58 beating it out. So with several winters beating this out with a lower index which actually means a stronger El Nino signal, this actually goes more into our favor. This means things may not necessarily be like El Nino’s of the past.
When we look at where exactly this warm water is for, the Nino 4 is the closet to the Pacific coast. This is the warmest water that we have seen at any time in history! This is absolutely amazing!
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Looking at El Nino 3 & 4 combined, then to level 3 alone, a little farther off the coast, the warmth is still showing up strong. But especially in the El Nino 3, it is not beating the following years: 1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16. That is a good sign. Still warm but a good sign.
Looking at the El Nino 1+2 Events (Central and Western Pacific Ocean) and the ONI top 8 El Nino events since 1950, we again are not in the top range here. The El Nino’s are near their peak now. The closest one that I see us being near: 1965-66. Any of you old timers remember the Blizzard of ’66? Remember being stuck in place for a week afterwards? From near all time to all time record cold, to one of the biggest snowstorms in history, to being frozen in place for weeks afterwards. That’s the Blizzard of ’66 before, during and after.
So looking ahead to January, February and March of 2024, the first three months of the new year, we continue with the above normal temperature projection for us. But that projection does not exceed 50%. That is key for me. That means the other 50% they are saying could be normal. Or it could be below normal. Precipitation goes back to average. More is in southern New England towards the coast. Less is in Western NY, especially towards the Buffalo area.
After everything I have looked at over the last month, I have made some decisions here. Some of which you may agree with. Some of which you will not. That’s fine. Most of my outlooks over the last 10+ years have worked out. Only a few have not. I believe I have the last several in a row accurate. I think 2016-17 I got screwed up by STELLA dumping 3 feet of snow in one day which threw off my numbers. I believe I have been accurate since then. The official 2023-24 Winter Weather Forecast is as follows:
Temperature:
Above Normal: 40 Percent
Normal: 50 Percent
Below Normal: 10 Precent
Precipitation:
Above Normal: 20 Percent
Normal: 60 Percent
Below Normal: 20 Percent
Remember, normal is within 20% of normal for precipitation or within 2 degrees of normal on temperature.
Enjoy your 2023-24 snowmobile season! Remember Monday Night, in just 72 hours, the Adirondacks are OPEN FOR BUSINESS! 7 days after that the Tug Hill and the rest of the North Country. On January 1, 2024, the rest of the state opens up. Let it ride!
Rich
