Trail Talk Thursday 10.26.23
Chance of Snow 10/26 to 11/2: 90 Percent (From 10/31 to 11/2)
Chance of Snow 11/3 to 11/9: 50 Percent (From 11/7 onward)
Hey! How you doing? Well that changed quickly over the last two days! A wrinkle in the overall pattern means Saturday will be one last day for near record highs. The snowfall potential and the amounts from the evening of Halloween to 11/2 just shot up like a cannon! Then it stays cold afterwards into the first full week of November with more snow potential. Let’s dive in.
We are looking at near record highs tomorrow and potentially on Saturday, especially Eastern NY and Downstate NY. The strong cold front which shall be part one of this system shall move in during the day on Saturday with serious temperature drops, especially through the day noted on the ETA. Anytime you get 40s in CNY on a Saturday evening with 70s in the Hudson Valley, you have a strong front dude!
Sunday and Monday with rain showers around, most of Upstate NY will probably stay in the 40s, even in the lower elevations. But a few spots at 50 or above could happen. Briefly. Overnight lows start getting into the below freezing territory especially up north of the Thruway by Tuesday. And that sets us up for another Nor’easter. This Nor’easter at first glance looks like somewhat of a repeat of the 1993 Nor’easter that snowed in Halloween night and missed beating out our all time October snowfall by just a few hours. On November 1, 1993, we had about 12 to 18 inches of snow across Upstate NY. It was the strongest snowstorm so early in the season. With us being 5-7 days out, and a storm like that being once in a lifetime, I am not ready to go down on that just yet.
But here is the 00Z ECMWF showing moderate to heavy snows starting Halloween night then continuing through November 1st. It doesn’t even end until the evening of the 1st and into the morning of the 2nd. Yikes! Holy cow! All I can say is this: No matter how much snow does come, if any, between 10/31 and 11/2, all trails in NY are closed! Only seasonal roads, mainly on the Tug Hill would you legally be able to ride. And even then…
Now with the Euro going ballistic, the GFS does not go with the Nor’easter. Remember we are at 144 hours on this. We have to get down inside 84 hours to get the GFS to go in on the Nor’easter. If the Euro continues to go crazy on this… lookout! This could be big.
After 11/2, we go into a several day warmup. By the weekend of 11/4 to 11/5, we get back to “normal” temperatures then beyond 11/5, look to go above normal for the remainder of the period. Well at least most of it. You get into November, getting a few days with sunshine and mild temperatures is rare. Remember, November is the cloudiest month of the year with only 25% available sunshine in Upstate NY.
Stay tuned. My eyes are on 10/31, 11/1 and 11/2. Especially 11/1.
