Hey! Did you know the first snows of the season are possible late tomorrow and tomorrow night across the higher elevations of Central and Eastern NY? You didn’t know that??? Well this is Upstate Snow after all! Of course we would tell ya!
So yesterday on the NAM 3K Short Term Model, we saw a brief amount of snow on yesterday’s run up to 60 hours. Usually when it comes down multiple times it means a much better chance of getting whatever it’s throwing down at us. And so with more snow showing up over the Tug Hill and Adirondacks, and over a few higher elevation locations south of the Mohawk Valley on Sunday Night, that’s the time to really be paying attention for your first flakes of the year!
How much snow? It’s October, do you need to ask? Well OK, you can ask. And then I will get to say, “not much”.
The best chances of snow are between 6 PM and Midnight on Sunday night. It will be a frosty to a freeze in many locations across Upstate NY heading into Monday morning. After highs only in the 40s to low 50s across Upstate NY on Monday with sunshine, what do you think Tuesday morning will bring? Mostly frost and freeze conditions for most of Upstate NY. So what about after this?
It’s going to turn warm. Quickly. We go from 25-35 on Tuesday morning to 55-65 across all of Upstate NY in the afternoon on Tuesday, a 30 degree swing! Wednesday? How about 70 in the lower elevations! It shall remain above normal for the rest of the seven day period going into the last weekend of October.
What about the next week heading into Halloween and into the first week of November? This is the map you don’t want to see! Below normal temperatures are likely across the Northeast including for Upstate NY. This means more highs in the 30s and 40s as opposed to the 50s and 60s. This means a much better chance for the first actual snowfall, and perhaps the first inch of snowfall. The first “trace” amounts of snow for Utica is October 21. Today. The first 1″ of snowfall is around Veteran’s Day (11/11) to November 15th. At least this is how the snow has come down over the last several decades. We shall see.
Thanks for hanging around me today. More to come soon. Let it snow!
Rich
