Some adjustments were made to the previous snow forecast. The aren’t major but they are noteworthy. The models continue to shift the storm to the east. This also means the zone of heavier snow shifts to the east. Given the trend to increase speed, I dropped amounts from 8-16 to 7-14. The main push on this is the EURO which is THE LOWEST out of all the models, barely covering the low end of the storm accumulations I have up there. Everything else including the meso models and especially the Canadian models are middle to high end of my range forecast. I dropped the 4-8 to 3-7 for Metro Buffalo and Rochester, with more to the south and east of both cities. I also brought the west end of the storm into the Watertown area and St Lawrence Valley, dropping accumulations there to 3-7. The biggest folks going up are the Capital Region, especially Albany and points south. They go UP to 3-7 and this carries all the way to the Mid-Hudson Valley. Also applies to most of the immediate Capital Region, with the 7-14 dragged into Saratoga, Fulton, Montgomery, Schoharie and the Catskills.
For most of the Finger Lakes, Southern Tier, Central NY, Tug Hill and the Adirondacks/North Country, just a slight drop. If the Euro is right, closer to 7-10. If the meso models are right, closer to 10-14. We shall see how this plays out. Here is one of the meso models, the NAM 3K, showing the storm from this afternoon through early Sunday morning:
After the storm passes by it will be cold. Definitely below normal cold, but not to record territory. It will be enough to freeze things down somewhat. Somewhat. Temperatures will not recover too much on Sunday. This DOES NOT count the winds that will be HOWLING Saturday PM into Sunday PM, making windchills near or below zero. This is one element of the storm I have not talked about much, but it will be there. It will feel brutally cold all weekend!
After a reprieve to around freezing on Monday, a cold front/clipper approaches Monday PM into Tuesday AM bringing some rain/snow mix, changing back to snow as we get one last reinforcement of colder air (below freezing air) on Tuesday. Tuesday looks to be the LAST DAY of below freezing conditions. If any clubs should choose to re-open their trails, it will be only for three days: Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday, the strong March sun does it’s thing, and the temperatures bounce back up like a superball, and the meltdown begins. From the 16th through the 18th (Wednesday-Friday) will see temps in the 40’s and 50’s during the day, with some lower elevations pushing into the low 60’s, especially Thursday and Friday.
Warm Saturday with widespread 50s and 60s, with rain arriving to wash out a majority of what snowpack is left, even in the Tug and Adirondacks. This is how I think it’s going to go: Sunday-Tuesday: Last gasp of the season, Wednesday through next Saturday: DIE HARD season in the snow bowls with very limited riding. The following week: GAME OVER. And that should be everywhere.
We’ll see how this last big storm (hopefully) of the 2021-22 season plays out. If you get the chance, enjoy the last few days of riding next week, if you can trailer to whomever is open. I know I preach this all the time but DOUBLE CHECK WITH CLUBS. Do not ride closed trails, trails you THINK are open. There are several clubs trying to hold on to their systems and trespassing in the late season could literally mean a few less NYSSA clubs open at all next season. Don’t be that guy. Our sport does not want you.
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