The models have come to a consensus with the upcoming storm track, snowfall amounts, and timing with our big storm starting Friday Night, lasting through most of the day on Saturday, with some minor lake effect Saturday night at the end of the storm.
The biggest question is how far north and west the mix mess gets. And how much shadowing the mountains provide. For the Capital Region of NY, you are in the land of “could be big” or “could be a dud”. This is especially true from the City of Albany and points south in the Hudson Valley. There will be a sharp cutoff from little snow to a lot with this storm and they will be near it. I expect lesser amounts in the Capital Region as a whole compared to the rest of the state, especially south of Albany. Across the Adirondacks, Tug Hill, CNY, Southern Tier and the Finger Lakes it’s BUMP CITY! Bullseye! If it wasn’t for this storm trending a little faster, I’d be tempted to put 18″ or even up to 24″ in some areas. Based on the speed of the storm, and with NO model support, I think 8-16 covers most possibilities here. And 16 (maybe an occasional 18″ report) will be top end on this one. Here is the evolution of the storm from start to finish on the models:
With the storm that overperformed yesterday, turning a 1-3 event into double that (or even triple in a few spots), and you add 4-8 or 8-16 on top of this by next Saturday Night… THIS IS THE ENCORE FOR WINTER 2021-22. For clubs that choose to open one more time after this storm, there will be a decent 3-4 day period of riding before the blowtorch comes back to melt it all away, and this time, probably for good.
After a weak clipper on Tuesday with some snow/mix/rain, starting Wednesday the warmup begins. From St Patrick’s Day through next weekend and beyond the first day of SPRING it looks like SPRING. High confidence in ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. In Mid March this means 50s and 60s are LIKELY. Maybe 70+ on a few days. This means after a few days to enjoy the last big bounty of snow, there are only two words left to display.
Bottom line: This is winter’s last gasp. If you want one last ride, fuel stabilizer run, one last crack before the sleds go away until next holiday season… Sunday the 13th, Monday the 14th and Tuesday the 15th will be your best shot to enjoy whatever trails clubs choose to open. Do not get mad at the clubs if they choose not to. Trust their judgement. Thank those that do and let you ride. And it’s never to late to support clubs with your membership. Just like it’s never to late to say THANK YOU to us for covering the snowmobile season by donating to Upstate Snow! We appreciate EVERYONE who gave to us this year. Here’s how you can say THANK YOU:
Drop me $10, and you’ll get name recognition, or if you wish not to use your name, recognition to your favorite snowmobile club or where you live. To become a SPONSOR, drop me $60 and I’ll put up a link to your business, Facebook page or snowmobile club!
Click below to get started
paypal.me/lupiallc
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THANK YOU to our faithful sponsors and members!
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JAYSOS!
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