The hurt ends with the cold front this morning bringing Upstate NY from the 50s back down to the reality it’s February, NOT April. There is a fair amount of territory that has lost all base and all snow cover at this time, lots of water, lots of mud. Today will be the chance for snowmobile clubs to assess what is left of humpty dumpty.
But we look forward here and indeed we are. Thursday is a quiet and cold day with the 1040 high just off to our NW in Ontario. That 1040 high, just like in early February, will ultimately save our ass and give us a fighting chance to get back on the trails this weekend into next week, in at least some parts of Upstate NY. Big wave rides up the front, a classic “cutter” scenario with the primary low going up the Ohio Valley until there is no more Ohio Valley (NW PA), then the secondary spins up between Harrisburg and Philly, drawing that cold air back into Upstate NY, resulting in higher snowfall totals. This is a fast moving storm. In areas that stay all snow, it could break into double digits. This will be a much wetter snow, more dense snow, the type that is good for base building. In areas that have a base left to build on.
As has always been the case with these storms, where does the mix line go to??? It always goes a bit more to the north and west than predicted, so at the moment I’m going to go with US Route 20, unofficially, as my “mix/mess” line. South of that line, you will get some sleet and/or freezing rain that will cut down on your totals. North of this line, it should stay all snow. Or very little mix. I think Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, Utica and the Capital Region will get more than environs to the south. I think Tug Hill, Adirondacks and North Country cash in on this one. Once again, the first call map.
This weekend into next week it’s going to be cold and quiet. Expect some weak cold fronts and weak clippers, reinforcing the cold air from time to time, but overall this Saturday really through next Thursday, look awful quiet but awful cold too. This means whatever snow we do get Friday will stick around and eventually get worn down on the trails depending on traffic. Keeping my eyes open for a lake effect event and/or another cutter, clipper or Nor’easter. Models and trends not showing much besides below normal temps next week.
Guide to Your Ride Podcast will publish later tonight. We’ll have the day to assess just how bad we got slaughtered from this warmup. What base is left/where, and what 4-8, or 6-12 will do for the trails this weekend into next week. Please do not attempt to ride, even on Tug Hill, until this storm goes by Friday. Even on Tug Hill, where seasonal roads and the top of the hill still has snow cover, a decent amount of it, everyone crushing it up there Thursday and/or Friday would not be a good idea. Give the trails a chance to heal, groomers and clubs a chance to work this new snow into the trails, and set you up for a great weekend. Until then, SNOW DANCE TIME!
To become a MEMBER, drop me $10, and you’ll get name recognition, or if you wish not to use your name, recognition to your favorite snowmobile club or where you live. To become a SPONSOR, drop me $60 and I’ll put up a link to your business, Facebook page or snowmobile club!
Click below to get started
paypal.me/lupiallc
www.venmo.com/u/Richard-Lupia
THANK YOU to our faithful sponsors and members!
SPONSORS
Southern Tug Hill SnoRiders
Saratoga Snowmobile Association
Ohio Ridge Riders
ILSNOW.com
Enjem’s Flooring America
Water’s Edge Inn – Old Forge
Adirondacks Speculator Chamber of Commerce
White Lake Inn
Toads LLC Fisher and Snow Dog Plows, Cairo, NY
John Schoff Memorial Vintage Ride – January 15, 2022
Lincoln Mountain Gansevoort Snowmobile Club
ATV Tractor
Foley’s Lawn Care and Gardening
Better Homes and Gardens Pristine Real Estate – Cape Coral, FL
North Country Market – Thendara, NY
PR Plus Small Engine Repair – Sherrill, NY
EnergyMark LLC
Mountain Culinary Company – Mountain Top, PA
Thousand Islands Snowmobile Club
MEMBERS
Chris Rinck
Charles Klesse
Chaz Albertson
Dave Gleasman
John Bates
Darrin Harr
Mark Enjem
Matthew Pistner
Eric Vilovchik
Brian & Paula Bedell
Robert G. Gartley
Chris Higgins
Nathan DeMarco
Frank Presky
Chris Schoff
Richard Keller
Mark Spano
Paul Marconi
Michael Schrader
Chris Skipper
Frank Sansone
Mercy Board LLC
John Scalora
Tom & Alis Vincent
Angelina Gogola
Cricket Corelli
Russ Lamoy
Jeff Greene
Chaz Albertson Jr.
John Bossolt
John Foley
Andy Artessa
Jenny & Ron Tyre
Mark Finkbiner
Christopher Cawley
Darren Bryant
M&M, SnoCh!c and SnoL!fe
Doug Wasiura
Devon Senecal
Billy & Millie McLaughlin
Rachelle Gross
Marc Mellaly
DV
Vicki Muehleck
Gertude Corelli
Brian Shoemaker
Brian Salamone
Tom Sylvia
Tom Robinson
Eric Olofson
Gill Benedek
Jason Sosiewicz
Ron Linich
Debra Hubbard
Dennis Sullivan
JAYSOS!
JDR
Stephen Prinzi
Chautauqua Boat Works
Brian Bedell
Barbara and Joe Monahan
Des Ballard
Quade Kirk
Kyle Prill
Sean Ogilvie
Christopher Aaron
Tim Schmidt
Woodhull Creek Clan
