We are holding our forecast from yesterday. Short range models and current trends with rain changing to snow, show a sharpening line between heavy snow and heavy ice setting up along Interstate 88 from Binghamton to Oneonta to Albany. Get south of that line, a lot more ice and a lot less snow. Sorry Catskills and Hudson Valley. Get north of that line, and the snowfall amounts jump FAST. This appears to be where “the line” is setting up and where the greatest bust potential is in my forecast. Otherwise, everything is happening according to plan.
During the day today, if you have rain and are above freezing, unless you are SOUTH of the line I mentioned above, you will change to snow. You are not going to get a ton during the daytime hours today. The sun will set tonight, many of you all will have anywhere from a dusting to and inch, to maybe 2-4 inches and wondering, how the hell are we going to get to 8-16… or 10-20??? The answer is the strong wave tonight and tomorrow morning. The deformation zone that forms over WNY, CNY and the Tug Hill/Adirondacks. This is where 1-2 inches of snow per hour for several hours comes to save the day… and the snowmobile season for many parts of Upstate NY. If you need to get something, you have until sunset today before it gets really bad. After that, good luck, you are on your own.
How long this deformation zone and third wave of snow coming in back of this lasts, will determine if my amounts will end up being low end or high end of my ranges. Friday during the day will determine where I land. Friday will be spent shoveling, snow blowing and plowing out. Groomers across the state for snowmobile clubs, knowing the weekend crush of traffic is coming, will be out full force packing, working in the brand new snow, to set things up. It will take until probably Sunday, if not Monday/Tuesday next week to set up the best conditions of the season. Even in the lower elevations.
Weather wise Saturday through Tuesday looks quiet with the exception of a weak clipper Monday bringing some light snow showers with little accumulation. Temperatures will be very cold Saturday and Saturday night, bouncing back closer to normal but still just a little below normal for the first half of next week. It will be time to ride and time to get out and enjoy it! And we will! We are coming up! Look for us on the trails Sunday, Monday and Tuesday next week. It will be epic.
We plan to do an Upstate Snow LIVE! tonight and tomorrow morning, monitoring the snow that is falling and any last minute surprises with the storm. Be on the lookout for these live shows, probably around 8-9 PM tonight, between 6-7 AM tomorrow. Thank you!
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