Most of the models continue to trend colder and farther south and east with the storm track and the area of mix/mess for our storm slated to hit us between Wednesday night and Friday afternoon. The NAM and GFS are among the more considerable models with snow, and a lot of it. If you look at just the GFS, it’s an outright snowstorm for more areas than we have indicated. But, the Canadian RGEM, one of our more reliable models for snowfall, continues to actually push the rain farther north and west and has way less snowfall than our current map. Please note this map is a first call… there will be adjustments to this tomorrow.
OK so today is the first day lower elevations and areas along and south of the Thruway get above freezing. The melting and compaction will begin. For lower elevation trails with barely enough snow cover to be open, this could be trouble. Even more so Wednesday as the milder air takes hold out in front of the storm with many locations indicating a high of 40 degrees or better on Wednesday. That is not good, given our low snow situation. Wednesday afternoon/evening as precipitation works in from the north and west into WNY and NNY, it may begin briefly as rain or mix/mess before transitioning to all snow as the colder air locks in by Thursday morning.
Thursday, Thursday Night and Friday Morning is the main show with this storm. Expect steady light to moderate snows, especially between Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. The low pressure will focus the precipitation more heavily before it pulls by to our south and east Friday morning, and the steady precipitation goes away by Friday afternoon. For such a blowtorch warmup, this setup keeps looking better and better on each model run! Where the mix mess sets up is the question. For now, I’m setting up the zone of mix mess from the Binghamton area through the Mohawk Valley into the Capital Region and Catskills. For folks in WNY, Tug Hill, Adirondacks (especially west of Route 30) and North Country, this will mainly be a snow event. And a big one. Winter Storm Watches are already hoisted and will likely go to warnings or “flags up bro!” by tomorrow morning. It should stay out of the Top 10 events for February, but in some locations, it will be close. For now I’m topping out my accumulations at 8-16″+ with localized amounts of 18-20″. I clearly see with the QPF forecasts and higher snow ratios enough reason to hang a 20 or even a 24 for high end accumulations. But it’s much easier to go up than to go down. Most locations in the pink should be near or over a foot of snow. Expect a big dropoff on snow east of Syracuse and south of Glens Falls on this one. At least this is the way I see it right now.
The weekend afterwards will be dry, partly to mostly sunny and COLD! Expect a return to the deep freeze with many areas, especially north of the Thruway, going back below zero again. Even WNY may get in on the below zero temps this time. Lake effect potential looks low given the storm track, shear and dry air coming in from the north and northeast. It remains cold next week, but not as cold as this upcoming weekend. The pattern also looks to get more active with clipper and potential for lake effect snow. That lake effect potential off Lake Erie is dwindling by the day as the lake is now beginning to ice over, taking away open waters for the cold winds to blow over and create snow.
For snowmobilers, our advice is to take a break from riding until this storm passes. You can still ride today, but as it gets warmer, heavy traffic would put more hurt on thin trails. Wednesday is a break day, Thursday LET IT SNOW! I would suggest Friday, as the storm is ending to get out into the power chowdah, and help the clubs pack this new snow in and down. Once the groomers get out there, this weekend should be great for riding in WNY, Tug Hill, Adirondacks and North Country. CNY, Southern Tier and Capital Region may be a tougher time to ride locally. Pray this colder air and mix/mess line works farther south and east so you can get more snow and a good weekend to ride!
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