Things just keep looking better and better when we look ahead to this week. At first, it was looking like potentially a wipeout. Three to Four days above freezing, strong south winds, temps in the 40s and 50s, especially in WNY, with heavy rain coming through then a dusting of snow to end the bleeding. It was looking really bad, considering the thin snow cover across Upstate NY, especially given it is the middle of winter. Then the big high to the north and west started showing up, and the cold air bleed from Ontario started showing up more in the models. Run after run this weekend, it kept looking better. Now we are 72-96 hours away, most of the range of that warmup is now entering the mesoscale models, and it’s just not there anymore. Not like it was.
It is not looking like a wipeout anymore. At least for most of Upstate NY. Along and especially north of the Thruway, and also for WNY, this is looking like potentially a GAIN of snow and base. Southern Tier, CNY south of Syracuse and Capital Region, well, not looking as good, but still close enough to where anything can happen. Lets detail this day by day.
MONDAY – Quiet day with sunshine and cold temperatures after a bitter cold start once again. If you can’t say much about the amount of snow on the ground, you can say a lot about the bitter cold freezing everything down. Thank God for that!
TUESDAY – Another quiet day, not as cold in the morning, with daytime temperatures approaching the freezing mark up north and well into the 30s along and south of the Thruway. WNY also well into the 30s to near 40 with increasing south winds.
WEDNESDAY – Increasing clouds. Milder still. Everyone is above freezing, most locations at or above 40. based on how things are looking right now, this could be the day with the most thawing and most damage. This is a day where there will be melting and compaction. It will impact lower elevation trails and places that can’t afford to lose any snow, the most. Rain and precipitation as you notice begins to approach Upstate NY from the west, moving into WNY Wednesday afternoon and spreading into CNY and NNY by Wednesday Night. It should start out as rain during the day on Wednesday with mix mess beginning Wednesday Night.
THURSDAY – GAME DAY. As the high builds in from the north and spring tries to surge forth from the south, the battle zone is Upstate NY. The storm track has shifted south the last few runs. GFS and Euro have flipped flopped with each other. Some key questions remain here: Where will there be sleet mixed in? Freezing rain? Just plain rain? We are hoping to answer those questions more specifically tomorrow when I put out my first call map for Thursday’s precipitation event. There is the potential for folks on the all snow side, WNY, Tug Hill, Adirondacks and North Country to get several inches of snow. Finger Lakes, CNY, Mohawk Valley and areas N of Albany look to be more mix/mess, but should still turn out OK. Southern Tier, Catskills, Hudson Valley, looking mix mess to rain. Still a lot of time and a lot of details to work out. For now, I will lean on a NAM/EURO mix for now, which shows cold and snow settling into all of WNY, into CNY and all of NNY first thing in the morning, with a warm surge sending mix mess in during the afternoon. That should turn back to snow Thursday night. This would leave most of the snow north of the Thruway for the Adirondacks and Tug Hill. Mix mess CNY, WNY, Mix mess to rain Capital Region and Southern Tier.
FRIDAY – GAME OVER. Any threat of warming and/or melting will end as the low pressure moving to the east will drive a northerly flow, colder temps, and a return to winter conditions across Upstate NY. There will not be much lake effect snow going on in back of the storm because the air will be dry, the flow will be too northerly (not as much fetch) and too much shear. 
NEXT WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK – Staying cold. Chances for lake effect snow. It is looking likely there will be territory to ride, a possibility of improved conditions, especially north of the Thruway. There are, I think, some clubs that will be set back and may have to break for a bit, but with the cold pattern continuing, it will only take a clipper and some lake effect to get things back up and running.
WHAT CAN GO WRONG? Well the high pressure doesn’t build down from the north as much and more mix mess and rain makes it more into Upstate NY. It’s certainly still possible. Just as possible would be the high building down more, and the storm tracking farther south. That would limit the warmup further and guarantee more snow, less mix mess. We still have time. Pray the trend towards colder continues.
WHAT ABOUT US COMING UP? We had initially scheduled a window from February 6-12 to come up in that window of time. The alternate window is February 15-20. We want to come up and ride SO BAD. We are on hold and trying to decide what to do. This Thursday storm will be the deciding factor IF we come up sooner, rather than later, and WHERE we ride. The plan will come together quickly. Look for details soon. We will return and we will ride!
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