The afternoon blog? Yep. My life is absolutely NUTS right now, and the only time I have to get anything out before Monday is NOW. And given the active weather now and coming later next week, I felt staying offline for three days was NOT AN OPTION. Thank you so much to my members, sponsors and all the fans who help “fan the flames” to keep this thing chug chug chugging along 🙂
THE BLIZZARD THAT WAS(N’T)
Holy cow! Hurricane force winds all across SE Massachusetts. Storm force winds and verified Blizzard Conditions for Suffolk County, Long Island, Eastern CT, all of Rhode Island, most of the Boston Metro area, Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard and Cape Cod. Blizzard Conditions developing in SE New Hampshire into Downeast Maine later this afternoon and tonight. And it dropped just a few inches on Albany and points south and east. I’m thankful, at least for Upstate NY, I had the storm well handled. I just ache over the small distance west. What could have been. For a second weekend in a row. First, 13 seconds. Now, 13 inches or more. Hoping for better heading into February
With the exception of right next to the shore, most of Lake Ontario is 36-40 degrees and WIDE OPEN FOR BUSINESS. Meanwhile, Lake Erie, which climatologically by 1/29 is 100% frozen and OUT OF BUSINESS, this year because of the late start to winter and warm fall, still has some open areas left in it and still has the potential to hit WNY. Although, honestly, that window is running out. Some early February snows will be possible off Lake Erie but later in February into March, I anticipate the lake will eventually be CLOSED for lake effect snow. I show all this to you on the satellite and the temp graphs now, because the lakes, as always, will play a role going into the first week of February, but especially, the second week of February. That’s what I’m seeing at this point.
THE WARMUP THAT IS NOT LOOKING AS BAD AS IT WAS
Honestly, between the Nor’easter miss and the way the storm systems have behaved this winter, I was all in on the huge warmup, sunshine and heavy rain with 40s and 50s washing away what hopes and dreams we had in winter here in Upstate NY. But now… things are not looking as bad as they could have been. Will we get above freezing? YES. Especially along and south of the Thruway. Will it rain? YES, especially WNY, Southern Tier and Capital Region. Will there be a setback for some areas? YES. Will it be as bad as we thought? NO. This will not be a total wipeout. We don’t have much extra snow to spare so most lower elevation locations will probably take a break while the higher elevations, especially N of the Thruway continue to ride. Here’s the outlook for next week and beyond…
Sunday/Monday – Partly to Mostly sunny. COLD. Almost BONE CHILLING COLD. One last time. Nothing above freezing in sight.
Tuesday – This is transition day. We start off really cold with single digits and teens common across Upstate NY (with some areas N of the Thruway still below zero) before the big warmup. Little to no rain Tuesday. As a warm front comes through, some stuff may pop up Tuesday Night into Wednesday morning so don’t be surprised.
Wednesday – This is the biggest trouble day for sure. Cloudy. Temps in the 30s, above freezing all day for most. Light showers, drizzle, fog. Fog which eats the snow like pac-man. Of this we and all the models agree on.
Thursday is the BIG day, leading into Friday. GFS and Euro have much different solutions on this. If the GFS is right, it’s a horror show. If the Euro is right, it’s PAYBACK for missing the Nor’easter this weekend.
As you can see the GFS is slower, more north and west, and brings a lot more trouble to Upstate NY, especially along and south of the Thruway. The EURO is faster, more intense, farther south and east, and Upstate NY is largely on the COLD SIDE of the storm with several inches of snow likely if this scenario plays out. PRAY FOR THE EURO TO BE RIGHT! PRAY FOR THE EURO TO BE RIGHT! Regardless of how we get through the “trouble” between Tuesday and Friday this week, from next weekend, through next week looks like THIS:
Colder air, more chances for lake effect snow, more chances at snowfall, temps staying below freezing on the average. This is FANTASTIC NEWS. The warmup, well advertised I said all along would only be temporary. THANK GOD IT IS… WINTER WILL BE BACK AFTER THIS BRIEF HIATUS. WE STILL GOT PLENTY LEFT IN THE TANK!
Ride now! Just bundle up! Sunday, Monday and Tuesday look good for riding. Wednesday and Thursday we do not recommend any riding, if anything just to preserve the base we have. Friday and beyond… WE. SHALL. SEE.
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