The NWS last night launched a whole lot of extra balloons and did flight scans over the Southeastern US last night, trying to get additional data into the models. The result? The western shift! Will it shift far enough west to get to snowmobile country? No. Instead of being 75-100 miles to the east, it’s going back west about 50. Closer to the original idea I had Wednesday with my map. But not quite. What does this mean for Upstate NY? The Capital Region and particularly the Hudson Valley are back in play for at least shovelable amounts. It will be close. Plowable amounts south and east of Albany. The hills to the east of the Hudson Valley are looking to take a decent hit. Southern New England and Long Island… The Blizzard of ’22 is coming…
I’m going to paint the line from Deposit to Amsterdam to Minerva to Dannemora. West of that line is NOTHING. East of that line, snowfall amounts will increase quickly. This puts at least a few clubs in line for a few inches. Ugh I hate this, I HATE THIS!!!Here is my final call on the storm starting overnight tonight and through all day Saturday. Notice the difference between ZERO and up to 10″ is less than 40 miles as the crow flies. Albany and Capital Region, this is the highest bust potential. As you’ll see below and to follow. Hills south and especially east side of the Hudson south of Albany, you are shoveling and plowing. This could be an ever sharper cut off in reality. I’ve seen them before. With this Nor’easter getting so dynamic and extreme, I’d almost expect it at this point. I think the snowfall gradient WILL BE TIGHT.
In comparison, and for putting this on the record, I’m going to show you the snow total maps. NAM is the highest, followed by Euro, NAM3K and GFS. GFS which blanked everyone except Long Island yesterday, suddenly singing a different tune this morning, even acknowledging Albany will get SOME snow. This is what I had to make my forecast off of. As you can see, I chose the Euro. Notice how tight the snowfall gradient is on the NAM! This is EXACTLY what I was talking about above my actual forecast map. Where does “the finger of God” go???
Sunday, Monday will be partly sunny, quiet and cold. Tuesday starts off cold, but increasing clouds in the afternoon and evening as the warm shot, well advertised, approaches. Getting closer, models are trying to form a warm front. That would be great news! Get a little extra snow before the warmup begins… THIS COULD HELP.
Another change is this: The warmup, instead of looking like 3-4 days of huge warmth followed by drenching rains, now not looking so slam dunkish. Snow mix entering into the equation. Cold front moving through late Thursday instead of late Friday. Surface low not bombing out as much to the north and west of Upstate NY. Storm track almost right over NY. These are interesting developments, which came with the additional data dump. Hopefully they are on to something and this isn’t just a fantasy cast?
Next weekend and beyond we get back to normal cold and snow chances. It does look like in the longer term that lake effect, especially off Lake Ontario is a possibility. Way far out for any specifics on this, but keep your eyes on February 5-10 range for the lakes to be more active than usual. Just a hunch at this point.
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