To Nor’easter or to not Nor’easter. That’s the $64,000 question this morning. That’s this Saturday. The models have come to an agreement that a Nor’easter will happen, and anywhere EAST of Upstate NY is likely to get the storm of the year. If the Euro verifies, which I will admit, the deterministic Euro is quite to the extreme, then potentially an all time storm on pressure and wind for New England? We are 5 days away now, so we are definitely passed the “if” stage, the questions right now are “what”, “where” and “when”?
The fact I’m giving so much bandwith to this weekend on a Monday tells you pretty much the weather this week will be calm in comparison. Indeed it is. We have a cold today today with our clipper system entering WNY this afternoon and the rest of Upstate tonight into tomorrow morning with snow. Most areas will see a dusting to 2″ with higher elevations and downwind of the lakes getting up to 4″. For mid winter, this is just another day. Behind the storm it gets BONE CHILLING COLD again. Tuesday PM through Thursday PM, the middle of the week, Upstate NY will be back into the deep freezer. Lows will get below zero Tuesday Night and especially Wednesday Night. North of the Thruway and colder spots south of the Thruway will be playing double digits below zero. Bundle up and take your cold weather precautions.
So we get to Friday and this is where things start to get interesting. A cold front will set up across Upstate NY with some light snows. This is a dusting to an inch or two, the type we have had most of this winter. But then the focus becomes SATURDAY. At this point in time, all three major models, the Canadian, the GFS and the Euro all scream Nor’easter. All of them evolve the storm differently. If you love the Euro, then don’t look. It bombs this sucker all the way to 946mb. If that were to ever happen, it would probably be an all time Nor’easter, with CAT 2 to CAT3 winds near the center, and damage along the coast the likes of which we have not seen in decades. And the snow misses Upstate NY. I, for one, am praying the vaunted Euro is WRONG with this scenario. The GFS is a relatively “weak” storm in the 970s but brings it near Cape Cod. This track brings modest snows to the Hudson Valley, Capital Region, eastern Adirondacks and the Champlain Valley. West of Route 30 gets bupkis in that scenario. The Canadian is the farthest west, bringing it onshore into eastern New England. This means some of the heavier snows hit the areas mentioned above and areas between I-81 and Route 30 (Mohawk Valley, Adirondacks and Tug Hill) would receive some snow. West of I-81 gets bupkis. Here are the three scenarios. So what do you think is going to happen?
Euro
GFS
Canadian
After the storm, whatever it is, expect some minor lake effect in back of it and a cold start to the first half of next week. January finishes COLD. Once we hit February next week, models diverge on the amount of warming coming. Some models get us near freezing. Some push us above briefly. All I can say is this: The next 10 days could be the best 10 days of the snowmobile season. I know snow cover is below normal and trails are thin and beat up. But we are on them. There are many great rides to be had. Go get them or stay home. I say, let’s go!
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