Some things have become very clear over the last 24 hours. Some things are still blurry, and out of focus. But the general weather conditions for the next 5-7 days are all pretty close on all the models. It’s just the matter of the dang DETAILS of exactly what, where and when…
Today we have a mild day with some patchy drizzle, freezing drizzle, and perhaps a trace of snow mixed in amongst the mostly cloudy sky. It stays in limbo like this tonight and into tomorrow morning before, literally, the bottom falls out. Friday will start off just fine for a January day. It will not end like it. Because the bitter arctic front is coming through. Take a look at what happens to the temperatures from the noon lunch whistle on Friday to Saturday afternoon at 1 PM. It’s stunning. These are ACTUAL AIR TEMPS, NOT WINDCHILLS. WINDCHILLS WILL BE MUCH WORSE!
If you plan to ride Friday night and/or Saturday at any time during the day, DO SO, BUT BE PREPARED FOR LIFE THREATENING COLD. Precautions above and beyond the norm. Make sure you are not alone, your route is planned, have plenty of survival supplies with you in case of a breakdown or trouble otherwise. Don’t go into remote areas, especially alone. When it gets at/below zero with colder windchills, these precautions are a MUST.
So now we have the bitter cold air set up for the Nor’easter to come running up the coast and hit all of Upstate NY with heavy snow Sunday night through Monday, MLK Day. Well, not exactly. We have a HUGE problem now. The European model, dead set on a farther south and east track, meaning more heavy snow for Upstate NY and less mix, on this last run, decided to flip flop with the GFS and go WEST of the mountains, running the storm all the way to Snowshoe, WV before running I-81 through CNY and into the St Lawrence Valley. This is potentially great news for snow starved WNY, but from CNY eastbound that means a ton of mix/mess with much lower snow accumulations! The GFS has flipped with the Euro and now wants to go more south and east, but still approach Upstate NY inland via the Hudson Valley and CNY, so for Upstate NY, it’s almost similar conditions.
The very early call on Sunday Night and Monday is this: There will be a storm. It will not be a 50 year storm (lay off haters!). It will be, just, a storm. More than cold enough all of Upstate NY starts off as snow, but as the low approaches, everyone east of I-81 goes to sleet and freezing rain Monday, for a time. This will take a decent storm and turn it into nothing to write home about. It will add to the base but not open up areas with thin snowcover just waiting for another 3-6 inches. Then it ends as snow Monday PM as the low flies by. If I were to put a map on it, the only areas I’d even consider double digit snowfalls would be from I-390 and Rochester WESTBOUND. For a lot of the snowmobile riding areas, especially Tug Hill and the Adirondacks, a few inches, mix/mess, a few inches. That’s the early call on this one at the moment.
If anything, I’m thinking the lake effect in back of the storm Monday night and Tuesday morning could end up dropping as much as the storm itself! I’m not kidding about that. Then we have Tuesday night into Wednesday a strong Alberta Clipper flying through with a general 1-3 or 2-4 type snow, followed by more lake effect and cold in back of it. Again, these numbers are very preliminary and I will not put this on a snow map until 3 – 3 1/2 days out. But the pattern recognition, it is there for cold and increased snow chances over the next 7 days. Those that are thin on snow may get some help. Others might do better. The devil is always in the details and we will still be working on it here.
The following is my planned release schedule, as of this morning, with the storms upcoming:
Friday: General discussion
Saturday: First snow map on Sunday night/Monday Nor’easter
Sunday: Revised map if necessary on Nor’easter, snowfall map for lake effect in back of storm
Monday: Upstate Snow LIVE on the storms impacts in Upstate NY, snowfall map for lake effect in back of storm and for Wednesday clipper
Tuesday: Snowfall map (revised) for Wednesday Clipper/lake effect
I’m so happy we have weather to talk about, even if it’s not lining up perfectly. I’ll continue to run hard for you all, as best as I can, every single day of the increasing shorter winter season. It’s MLK weekend already! Gosh six to eight more weeks and it will be mid March. I’ll be here to guide you through every step of the way. Don’t forget to check out on the Facebook page, on the podcast page at Upstatesnow.com, Transistor, Spotify and Apple Podcasts, the latest episode of the Guide to Your Ride podcast, this week with Chris Rinck from Southern Tug Hill Sno-Riders. It was a great podcast you should listen to, especially if you are trailering north in the next few days.
Thank you to all the businesses, organizations and individuals that support Upstate Snow through membership or sponsorship! To become a MEMBER, drop me $10, and you’ll get name recognition, or if you wish not to use your name, recognition to your favorite snowmobile club or where you live. To become a SPONSOR, drop me $60 and I’ll put up a link to your business, Facebook page or snowmobile club!
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JAYSOS!
