The cutter is “cutting” it’s way away from Upstate NY with little snow to show for it. Lake snows showed up big time, at or above expected ranges in NNY and especially in WNY where Buffalo Airport somehow verified the NWS 12-18 with a record 17.8″ snowfall! Too bad we can’t do loops around the Buffalo/Niagara International Airport with our sleds. Oh well. We need the snow where the trails are. Some got good snows, a lot fell short of what they needed. It’s a club by club basis for what trails are open, and what clubs today have enough snow and/or base to even think about it. It’s not a lot of clubs. Outside of Tug Hill proper, and the Adirondack snow bowls, it’s a club or a few clubs here or there. No Tug to Adirondacks. Black River Valley is toast. Buffalo area has no base despite double digits worth of white gold sitting on top of totally green grass. For riding this weekend, make decisions very carefully, with low expectations, marginal conditions and expect tons of TRAFFIC because every other brap head in NYS and beyond is doing what you’ve been waiting to do. Ride! PLEASE BE CAREFUL!
So for today, we are reduced to lake effect snows to provide any significant additional snowfalls. Unfortunately the areas that got hit yesterday, except the Chautauqua Ridge and some of the farther Southtowns well S of Buffalo, will not be in for big accumulations today. I didn’t want to draw in a 4-8 contour on the Chautauqua Ridge of N Chautauqua, N Cattaraugus and S Erie Counties, and off Lake Ontario through eastern Wayne, N Cayuga, most of Onondaga including the City of Syracuse, northern Cortland, western Madison and northern Chenango Counties, but these are the areas where some 4″+ amounts will occur over the next 24 hours in the most persistent bands. Outside of these areas mentioned above, DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN 2-4 INCHES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TODAY! Lake effect snows will be on and off, gradually tapering off overnight and diminishing Saturday morning, leaving a partly sunny (yeah!) and cold day across Upstate NY. If you try to go riding at all, tomorrow is particularly the day. Get out and enjoy it (carefully!).
Sunday the mix mess moves into town. It develops quickly during the morning hours, snow with sleet/frz rain mix, then a period of mix to rain during the afternoon. Temps will top out Sunday in the 30s to low 40s and precipitation will not be especially heavy, so for the few areas of Upstate NY that actually have riding or a small base forming, this will be actually a good thing. This is a critical freeze/thaw cycle that is necessary to set up the rest of January. When conditions are much better in a few weeks, and we look back retrospectively, this event will stand out as key. Most of any mix or rain will be ABSORBED by the snowpack, whatever there is, Sunday. It will knock it down some, but with the brutal cold coming in back of it, it will make A VERY NICE BASE TO BUILD ON!
Speaking of brutal cold Monday and Tuesday, we’re talking coldest of the year folks. From Monday PM through Wednesday AM, areas north of the Thruway will struggle to get ABOVE ZERO. The rest of Upstate NY will struggle to get out of the single digits and lower teens above zero. Winds will make windchills below zero everywhere. With the brutal cold coming off of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, it will open up the books for several inches or more of additional lake effect snow! Wherever that snow falls, it will make for the best conditions seen so far this season. There is some serious hope growing that MLK Weekend will have more trails open than this weekend, better conditions and more base. Right now it’s still a hope and not a guarantee, but with brutal cold a guarantee early next week, things are looking up BIG TIME. Check out the 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks issued yesterday. The Northeast is FINALLY into BELOW NORMAL TERRITORY! This means whatever we get, we will keep. Anything additional we get, it will add to the conditions.
And so I conclude on January 7, 2022, the biggest and most important Morning Blog of not just the new year but this snowmobile season of 2021-22. It’s coming. Winter is here. It’s not going away. The pattern change is here. The snow is flying. More trails will open. If you can’t get your braps in this weekend, you’ll have the next two weeks and hopefully better conditions to do so. Knowing how this winter started, these next few weeks could be winter period. Don’t expect February to be awesome! That’s not a guarantee. Take the next 7-14 days for what it is: The best we’ve seen so far.
Get out and enjoy it!
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