I have no idea what the hell the NWS in Buffalo is seeing. All the model data I have available to me indicates some lake effect snow, and several inches being likely. I have NOTHING that indicates 12-18 inches for the city of Buffalo and the city of Watertown. In all fairness NWS Buffalo is the king of lake effect. Period. They have BUFKIT and created it. I didn’t. But something got the attention of NWS Buffalo Meteorologists yesterday afternoon and a Winter Storm Watch was immediately issued followed by this big map. With very little changes after the models came in overnight. Models that are indicating this is a high end snowfall event. And I’ll prove it to you. First the NWS Buffalo official forecast, then all the models as of 5 AM this morning, then my call. While I would LOVE to see 12-18 come true, I’m honestly having trouble seeing widespread snowfalls getting into double digits. The anomalously warm lakes, well organized flow and high snow ratios are the factors they are citing on their forecast discussions. We’ll see. Some factors lining up with previous events that caught the BUF by surprise can cause them to go out on a limb. I’m giving my professional colleagues in Buffalo the benefit of the doubt on this one. But here we are. These are 24 snowfall forecasts from 7 PM tomorrow (Wednesday) through 7 PM Thursday, so basically a 36-60 hour forecast.
So, you are here to see what I think about this? Well, here it is! Based off of ALL 5 models and the NWS Buffalo forecast, this is my 10-year Upstate Snow, 25-year experienced Meteorologist point of view/call for this Wednesday 7 PM to Thursday 7 PM event.
So the 2-5 in Niagara County, Wayne County and Oswego County I’m counting on the bands oscillating some. If it stays on a 240-250 heading, I could be high here. 5-10 with locally a foot for the City of Buffalo to the western suburbs of Rochester, northern approaches to The Tug Hill (along and north of Route 177) from Lowville northbound into Jefferson, northern Lewis and St Lawrence Counties. The hill proper (Montague south through Turin and STH land to the southern approaches) look to get a few inches but not a big dump this time.
OK so this Buffalo reaction to the clipper and lake snows Wednesday PM through Thursday PM have totally taken the attention off of what has been well advertised for days, and continues to light up the models, now approaching the 72-84 hour magic window. The “cutter” storm coming up the Ohio Valley, over the Mason/Dixon line and off the Jersey Shore. This continues to look like a widespread, general snowfall for all of Upstate NY at least in the 3-7 inch range. Many areas like CNY, the Southern Tier, Capital Region, Southern Adirondacks and the Hudson Valley look to get at least a half a foot on this one. Because of how fast it is moving, I’m not seeing widespread double digit snowfall numbers yet… but a solid 4-8 looks to be in the cards. No snowfall map. Yet. That will be for tomorrow’s Morning Blog…
Folks, factor in the COLD this morning, add this snows to what little base we have, and there is a chance starting Friday PM through this weekend that many places might be able to get their first rides in for the first time this year. It won’t be mid-season, not even close. But just the fact of where we were, and the way we are talking now, should give you HOPE that January is here, January weather is HERE, and we will have a shot starting this weekend to do something we’ve been waiting to do for 10 months now…
HIT. THE. TRAILS. Even if only a little.
Not guaranteeing it. Yet. But this is by far the best scenario we’ve had in this so far disappointing winter of 2021-22. Before you go anywhere, DOUBLE CHECK WITH CLUBS FIRST! Don’t assume because 4-8+ inches of snow falls, the trails automatically open. This is the time of year and scenario that causes the biggest problems for snowmobile clubs. Checking trails. Clearing and marking trails. Opening gates. Getting landowner permission to open trails. Making sure everyone is riding safe, riding right, and playing by the rules. Please, just please, DON’T BE THAT GUY that’s so eager to ride you blow past ‘trail closed” signs, cut open gates, or otherwise piss off landowners whom without them, our playground is way limited. Please. Pretty Please.
Keep doing the snow dance! It’s working! Just a few more days now and we will start to get some portions of Upstate NY riding and in business!
To become a MEMBER, drop me $10, and you’ll get name recognition, or if you wish not to use your name, recognition to your favorite snowmobile club or where you live. To become a SPONSOR, drop me $60 and I’ll put up a link to your business, Facebook page or snowmobile club!
Click below to get started
paypal.me/lupiallc
www.venmo.com/u/Richard-Lupia
THANK YOU to our faithful sponsors and members!
SPONSORS
Southern Tug Hill SnoRiders
Saratoga Snowmobile Association
Ohio Ridge Riders
ILSNOW.com
Enjem’s Flooring America
Water’s Edge Inn – Old Forge
Adirondacks Speculator Chamber of Commerce
White Lake Inn
Toads LLC Fisher and Snow Dog Plows, Cairo, NY
John Schoff Memorial Vintage Ride – January 15, 2022
Lincoln Mountain Gansevoort Snowmobile Club
ATV Tractor
Foley’s Lawn Care and Gardening
Better Homes and Gardens Pristine Real Estate – Cape Coral, FL
MEMBERS
Chris Rinck
Charles Klesse
Chaz Albertson
Dave Gleasman
John Bates
Darrin Harr
Mark Enjem
Matthew Pistner
Eric Vilovchik
Brian & Paula Bedell
Robert G. Gartley
Chris Higgins
Nathan DeMarco
Frank Presky
Chris Schoff
Richard Keller
Mark Spano
Paul Marconi
Michael Schrader
Chris Skipper
Frank Sansone
Mercy Board LLC
John Scalora
Tom & Alis Vincent
Angelina Gogola
Cricket Corelli
Russ Lamoy
Jeff Greene
Chaz Albertson Jr.
John Bossolt
John Foley
Andy Artessa
Jenny & Ron Tyre
Mark Finkbiner
Christopher Cawley
Darren Bryant
M&M, Snow Chic and Snow L!fe
