New Year… New snowfall map! Since this event is 24-36 hours away this snow should be close to “take it to the bank”. It’s not a lot, especially with hardly anything on the ground. But this winter, anytime it snows it is an “event” and every inch means SOMETHING…
So the cold front will push into Upstate NY late tonight into Sunday AM. The snowfall accumulations are 100% dependent on the speed of this front. Period. End of story. The moisture will be there. Over the last few runs, the cold air has been pushing far enough ahead to change rain to snow and to start accumulating snow mainly along and north of the Thruway. There will be a pretty sharp cutoff with this. Over the course of 50 miles as the crow flies will be the difference between 1/2 inch and 1/2 foot. Most of the snow on this map shall fall late morning through the afternoon and evening tomorrow. If there is a difference in the cold air timing tomorrow morning, I will revise the snowfall map, but for now, this is my best shot.
I believe Buffalo, to Rochester to Syracuse to Utica to Albany, lower elevations and farther south will see snow as this system pulls through. I believe along and south of the Thruway will not accumulate much, dusting to an inch or two at most. In general, if you are at or below I-90, less than 2″ is the call.
Foothills, southern 1/2 of Tug Hill including Tug Hill proper, southern and central Adirondacks, will see more colder air and therefore more snow. Because some rain will mix in before changeover, especially in the morning, this is the transition 2-4″ range. It’s here in the 2-4 that could swing the most wildly.
From about Watertown to Blue Mt Lake to North Creek and points northward, this is the area that should be mostly snow. I’m expecting a halfway decent snowfall of at least 4″. Some spots could squeak out 6-7 inches out of this, especially northern Adirondacks of St Lawrence, Franklin and Clinton Counties. Probably most of Essex County too.
Once this pulls out Monday morning it is COLD for the return to work, school and droning on into 2022. Most of Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday will be quiet and COLD. Temperatures below freezing with overnight lows single digits common, especially north of the Thruway. This is what’s called NORMAL for January. HOORAY!!!
OK, so next system late Wednesday into Thursday could bring some light snows. Possible rain mix in south of the Thruway. Since we are beyond 4 days, I’m not going to get fancy on this one yet. But behind this… Is the one that has my attention. Pay close attention to the maps going through Thursday, Friday into next Saturday…
This was the storm GFS was showing 2 days ago that I pooped all over and said 7+ day fantasy, Euro is not showing it, not going to happen. Only way this even has a chance is if Euro comes into agreement with the GFS and keeps showing it. Well look at what we have here… Euro and GFS agreement at days 6-8… for now… It has been show 5 model runs in a row on the GFS, 3 on the Euro. We’ve got time on this. Again, especially this winter I refuse to get excited until we get within 72-96 hours. We aren’t there yet. BUT… This thing at the moment is trending well for Upstate NY… It has my attention… and I am WATCHING it for now. Stay tuned…
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