Snow… where are you? Are you coming anytime before spring???
I wish I could say New Years Eve and New Years Day looked better. But it does not. Remaining warm with 30s and 40s common, fog at times, and occasional rain showers. It’s not blowtorch or a wipeout thaw, but given the piddly snowpack over all of Upstate NY right now, it might as well be. For the few able to ride the top of the Tug Hill or the bowels of the Adirondacks a few miles at a time, this will become even more difficult as mild conditions eat slowly at whatever meager base is there. Some snow Sunday as the colder air works in back of this system but the winds are not favorable for major lake effect snow, and the cold is not as robust as it was a few days ago. Surprise!
Well what about the huge pattern shift a cooldown. Yeah. About that. I’m calling it now. Temporary, not a pattern shift. The models have been doing an awesome job of playing “fakeout” in day 5-10 with big changes coming, only to back off of them later. That is indeed exactly what looks like is happening with the models next week. Instead of the huge cold chunk unloading on Southeastern Canada and the Northeast US, once again a glancing blow, not as cold or as far below normal as we’d like, and a much quicker warmup on the back side of this thing towards the middle of next week. To the point to where by this time next Thursday, we are right back where we started from… on the warm side of a system with snow going to rain. Of course GFS is hanging a snowstorm next weekend in the day 8-9 range, with a track to the south and east. I’m calling BS on that because of this models cold bias, especially in winter, and previous records with La Nina. Not saying it won’t happen. Not saying it will. I’m just saying… it’s day 8-9. Call me when we get within 72-96 hours and I’ll start to play it up.
The stats and patterns are unmistakable now. We are nearly through December 2021 and our winter forecast of Above Normal on temps and Below Normal on snowfall is unfortunately not only dead on, but a resounding success thus far. I hate it when I’m right sometimes. With serious winter in the western US, Rockies, and Upper Midwest, I have no idea when or even if we get winter.
Could it be like 2001-02, 2011-12, 2015-16 to where it just never comes? Or will it be like 1992-93, 2006-07 or even last winter 2020-21 where the front half of winter was like this then the back nine was great, if not epic? I cannot answer that. Yet. But pretty soon I’ll be able to. January is nearly here. In 10-14 days we’ll be able to have some idea of what the rest of January will look like. Given how most of the last 10-15 snowmobile seasons have gone, that leaves February. Period. March you cannot rely on anymore. Maybe you’d get a Stella like in 2017 or reload the pattern like in 2018, but that was from nothing to something, which only lasts 1-2 weeks at most by then before spring kicks in.
With no serious snow cover nearby and winter’s wrath already carved out in other places, I’m a lot closer to giving up on winter now than I was a week or two ago. There’s still time for pattern changes, storms, even 2-3 weeks instead of 6 like last year? We are beggars. Snow Gods… please… anything you can spare. It would be a shame to let abnormally warm Great Lakes go to waste…
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