Two rounds of snow are in store for Upstate NY. The first is this afternoon and tonight, tapering off tomorrow morning. The second wave comes Sunday afternoon and especially Sunday night and into Monday morning, with additional lake effect lingering into Tuesday.
Round 1 is on schedule and on it’s way to Upstate NY. Temperatures continue to be borderline, hence why the first snowfall map I published yesterday remains the forecast and remains unchanged. Of interesting note, one particular weather team is breaking against consensus on this event for this afternoon and evening, leaning more snow. It will be interesting to see if they are right about this. Expect rain and snow mix to change to all snow around and after sunset tonight, ending as all snow, even in the lower elevations. In the higher elevations at or above 1000′ is where it should stick to the ground and start to make things white…
So then we get to Sunday SUNDAY!!! It starts out quiet with lake effect tapering off in the morning. Best chance for quiet weather is between 10 AM and 2 PM for CNY and points east. A few hours earlier in WNY. Then the next storm, the actual upper level low and deeper low level moisture moves in. The air on Sunday afternoon and evening is cold enough for ALL SNOW, even at the lower elevations. Any mixing with rain should change to snow quickly.
It’s after sunset this thing really gets going. Notice on the NAM 3K snow, light to occasionally moderate snow, across almost ALL of Upstate NY. Those whom have not had their first snow yet, this is probably where your snowless run ends! It will be enough, even in the lower elevations, especially Southern Tier, CNY, NNY, Tug Hill and Adirondacks, to where it will start to stick and it will start to get slick. Sunday night, and the morning commute on Monday morning looks to be the first true test of winter’s return to Upstate NY. Even if only briefly.
During morning rush on Monday the steady snows are pushing out and the lake effect behind the upper level storm begins to move on in. So for Monday instead of widespread, the snows will be more localized, mainly higher elevations and favored upslope and lake effect band areas. This is the reason why the totals will be higher in these locations. Especially south of Buffalo, the higher elevations of the Southern Tier, and areas north of the Mohawk Valley getting into the snow bowls of the Tug Hill and western Adirondacks. Add up both events, and some locations will be in excess of 6″ of snow by the time we get to Tuesday morning.
It is the first really widespread snowfall event for almost all of Upstate NY. Outside of the Hudson Valley and immediate Capital Region, nearly everyone will have snow and many, even in lower elevations will get at least some measurable accumulations. With warmer air flooding back in Wednesday with temperature forecasted to soar into the upper 40s and 50s followed by rain, most of what falls will get wiped out, even in the higher elevations. Except a few places where two event totals exceed 6″. Thanksgiving is soon and it’s there and beyond we get into the snow sticking longer, snow bases starting to build and the countdown to the start of snowmobile season in the Adirondacks and Tug Hill goes from weeks to DAYS. Sit tight. We’re doing ok for now.
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