Another snowy day! Most of Upstate NY sees an additional 1-3 inches of snow through tonight with localized areas of 4-5 inches possible in upslope areas and downwind of Lake Ontario. Add this to the bonus snow that was WAY more than predicted yesterday… and yes if I was up to putting up a snowmap… the ideas I had in mind were NOT what you are clearing from your driveways and sidewalks this morning if you haven’t cleared it already.
I know I keep saying this and you’re getting to the point of maybe not listening anymore about the warmups are coming… because they’ve been cut off at the pass before getting to Upstate NY. It has truly been an awesome 6-7 week stretch of weather between the cold and snow… but changes are coming. Not dramatic but noticeable.
It starts tomorrow as the next system pushes to the NORTH of Upstate. All that warmth that has finally returned to Texas, the south, will flood into the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic… and Upstate NY is on the northern edge of that this time. Not blowtorch by any means but the mercury may nudge past 40 in the lower elevations tomorrow and above freezing even on the Tug and Adirondacks tomorrow is very likely. Precip will be light and a mix of rain and snow depending on the temps.
Thursday through Friday the cold returns. Not bitter cold. But enough to get below normal for a few days, and freeze these trails down with all the heavy snow that just fell on them. Thursday and Friday will be much better days for riding than this weekend. Here’s why:
Next storm goes north and west Saturday into Sunday. We will be back above freezing. Because the storm system is weakening as it does so, and it’s an overrunning situation, expect cloudy skies with light precipitation. Not high winds or high temperatures at this point, but enough to turn many trails this weekend into mashed potatoes. Not the fault of clubs but high traffic and above freezing temps is not a good combination. They will do what they can.
Models next week are all over the place on weather systems and temperatures. There is no consistency between models and ensembles that I can do with at this point. Going back to my previous statements, spring is getting going across the Southern US and the big cold won’t be far away in Canada. Where the battle zones are setting up will make the difference for Upstate NY. There will still be great riding across NY State next week but not as good as it is now.
As you can see from the temps predicted next week, it’s not like it has been, and even this is subject to change. Remember next week is March. For us to have a good March it needs to be BELOW NORMAL. We’ve had a long run of that and by law of averages we are running out of time. Could we still get lucky, stay on the cold side, and get more snow like we just got? Absolutely. We’ll see how March treats us.
Final note: Planning on Guide to Your Ride tomorrow night with Chris Rinck. I will try to keep up The Morning Blog as much as I can and I thank you in advance for your understanding if I cannot. I’ll share more as I’m able to soon.
Rich
