Just because the Euro says “yahtzee” four days out does not mean it’s a lock. Yes, you should be on alert for a POTENTIAL snowstorm of the Nor’easter variety this weekend, BUT key word is POTENTIAL. I’m not sold on it yet and I will go into why below. Yes we are snow lovers and want big snows, but wishing it here doesn’t override basic principles of Meteorology.
OK, backing up here the snow from storm one has finally come, the snow you are seeing outside right now. That’s out of here by tonight, even on the Tug. It’s quiet tomorrow and Friday. That’s the easy part. Question is how does what’s left of storm one (see my previous blogs in the last week regarding this) set up the pattern for storm number 2.
So storm two has been all over the place the last several days with no model agreement. Out to sea. Inland. Might hit. Might not. There has been little consistency run to run and across models. We are still 4 days out. Not all storms can be picked that far. So, here is the deal:
JUST BECAUSE THE EURO SAYS SO DOES NOT MEAN IT’S A LOCK.
The Euro is the best model we have especially at 3-10 days, far superior to the American GFS, Canadian GDPS, British and all others. But it makes mistakes too. It has flashed Nor’easter before only to say “gotcha! ha ha!” So take this blog only as a “stay tuned” not a “we are going to get feet of snow” because we are NOT SAYING THAT… yet…
OK so lets play this out… Let’s take the Euro at face value and assume it’s a perfect track for everyone in CNY, Tug Hill, Adirondacks and the Capital Region to get nailed. Yes I say it’s all about the track. BUT… we have a problem. A cold air problem as the storm approaches. Temps are indicated as MARGINAL.
So even if Euro is right on timing and track, it may not necessarily be double digits everywhere except WNY across Upstate NY. If it does hit it’s a HEAVY WET SNOW which is both good and bad. Good for base building, but the ground is still warm and wet and burying it in 4 days would not help base building overall for snowmobile trails. We need many nights in the teens to single digits to lock the ground up and slow the mud and water down. That is not in the forecast.
Then consider the GFS and GDPS, the tracks are farther west and slower, making the event more of a Sunday than Saturday show, and likely with more mixed precip.
Beyond this, Yes Euro is coldest and would give a chance at riding the first open trails on Tug and in parts of the Adirondacks middle to end of next week, MAYBE. All other models are not as cold.
Bottom line: Yes there is hope, yes there is potential, but it’s NOT a lock, and we need cold as much as the snow, otherwise trail riding for the first days of 2020-21 would be an exercise of mashed potatoes and gravy along with epic water holes on trails. Stay tuned. We’ll keep you posted daily. Hopefully we can resolve things a little more in tomorrow’s morning blog.
Thanks,
Rich
