Quick morning blog update before heading to church. There will be no snowmap today but there will be one tomorrow for the snows developing across Upstate NY starting Tuesday AM in WNY, spreading into CNY and the Tug Hill Tuesday Night into Wednesday Morning, then through the day Wednesday across WNY, CNY, the Tug Hill and the Adirondacks.
Timing is a little clearer as well. Here we go:
Today and tonight: Quiet.
Monday AM: Winds pick up. Rain develops south to north across Upstate NY during the morning.
Monday PM: Washout. Steady rains, gusty winds over 30 MPH, especially in the higher elevations. Raw. Temps still above freezing. Storm center looking more likely to default W of the Appalachians and the Blue Ridge, staying just W of I-81 going more of a Pittsburgh/Altoona to Rochester/Syracuse route. This keeps most of the state warm sector until the low passes by in the evening.
Monday Night into Tuesday Morning: Rain changes to snow across WNY, especially S and SW of Buffalo. Could be enough to whiten the ground in Chautauqua and Cattaraugus and southern Erie counties by morning.
Here is the NAM projection on storm track and placement. It’s similar to the Euro.
Tuesday: snow with accumulations, potentially a few inches, especially higher elevations across all of WNY, west of I-390
Tuesday Night: As cold air streams in across the state, snow spreads east. Could be enough to whiten the ground in CNY and the Tug Hill by Wednesday morning, nothing major, snow continues across WNY.
Wednesday: WNY snows gradually wind down except for lake effect. This is the best chance of snow for Tug Hill, CNY and the Adirondacks through Wednesday and Wednesday Night.
Thursday and Friday things should be quiet. Just above freezing by day. Below freezing at night. Not as cold as I want, but it’s a step in the right direction.
Next weekend storm 2 the models still all over the place. Regardless, all models indicating coldest air of the season possible into early the following week. Cold good. More lake effect good. We’ll see, still a ways out.
Have a blessed Sunday!
Rich
