Folks winter will be back. After analyzing the clipper and cold blast coming in back of it, I have a feeling this event starting Wednesday overnight into Thursday 1/16 and ending by morning Friday 1/17 (with bitter cold temps) will over perform what models are showing. Low level moisture behind the clipper is good, but unfortunately for the snowbelt areas of Tug Hill and the western Adirondacks, it won’t hit as much there as it will areas on a more NW flow, so southern end of Tug Hill, Syracuse area and the hills along Rt 20 from Otsego County to the Finger Lakes. Areas snow starved lately could easily get 4, 6, potential 7 or 8 inches over the 24-30 hour period this clipper and lake effect comes back into Upstate. Until then, just wait patiently.
So the “big” storm for Saturday, the models continue to show, if anything slowing a bit and being more of a daytime event Saturday into Saturday Night now with lake effect in back of it on Sunday 1/19. As I mentioned in my video earlier this week, the fact the primary low is strong and the cold air ahead of it suspect, will make a big impact on total accumulations. Could much of Upstate see several inches out of this MLK Weekend storm? Yes. Would it be historic in the 18-30″+ range? HIGHLY UNLIKELY. What is becoming a little more clearer is that higher accums should be along and east of I-81 given the cold air question and track bringing warmer air into WNY. How much warm air and mixing gets east of I-81 will make the difference between a 2-5 or 3-6 as opposed to an event where 8″ or more is possible.
REGARDLESS of what this storm ultimately does on Saturday 1/18, Lake Effect snow is LIKELY 1/19, locations and amounts still too soon to determine.
The trend of below normal temperatures will continue through next week and indications are continuing to build that winter could stick through the end of January and beyond. I hope so. I’ll go more into this in tomorrow morning’s blog.
THERE IS HOPE. BE PATIENT. WINTER IS ON THE COMEBACK TRAIL LIKE THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS AGAINST THE HOUSTON TEXANS LAST WEEKEND. WE WILL GET BACK ON THE TRAILS SOON.
Will there be riding this MLK weekend? Probably not since bases were wiped out most everywhere. When the snow does return late this week into early next week, important to check with local clubs as you would in December to make sure trails are open and safe to ride… when we get there… but we will get there…
