This blog is overdue. A look at the weather for the next week plus, and a review of our two rides Wednesday and Thursday. Weather first.
Record warmth and rain through Sunday morning will put the ultimate test to what is left across Tug Hill and the Adirondacks in terms of snowpack.
The lower elevations are burnt toast with the Thruway corridor and points south almost certain to threaten if not break 60. Some parts of WNY this morning are already near that! And we have around 24 hours to go. And this doesn’t count the strong SW winds working against us.
Specifically to where there is the snow to ride and where literally thousands were riding on it the last three days:
TUG HILL – My greatest concern since the warmer temps have already made it here and the snowpack was already thinner than usual. Even in the best spots like Highmarket, Tabolts and Montague there will be a major hurting on the pack. Approaches around this like Osceola, Swancott Mills, West Leyden, C’ville and Turin will be completely wiped out.
ADIRONDACKS – It has been colder here which is a saving grace. I don’t see southern locations like Ohio, Moorehouse, Powley Road, Stratford and Speculator area surviving well. I do see Old Forge, Big Moose, Stillwater and MRP surviving better with something left given the elevation, deeper snowpack and the fact the cold has hung tough. Won’t be pretty but I don’t see a full wipeout in these areas even if it hits the 50s for several hours and we exceed 1” of rain.
Sunday the cold front goes through and stops the bleeding… but I’d liken it to putting a shirt over open flesh wounds instead of actual bandages. Sunday night goes below freezing but Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday during the days will be above freezing. Given these conditions after the big thaw, expect anything that’s left anywhere to ice up big time.
Thursday is five days away now and models are in unison agreement a precipitation event will happen but disagree on whether it’s rain to snow or mostly snow. Friday next week is looking likely for cold and lake effect snow to return.
When we reach MLK weekend and beyond there becomes more disagreement in the models. GFS and Canadian say pattern change. Euro says we remain up and down, still with some cold and snow chances but not a full on pattern change. Even GFS and Canadian have things working for cold and snow but some things not in the right position. Polar Vortex is nowhere to be found. This is simply a more northerly flow bringing the Canadian air that’s super cold in.
If you remember a few weeks ago I bit in on this fully and look what’s going on now.
I’m not biting again. Not yet anyway. Not when the models are in disagreement in the 7-14 day range.
I’ll be cautiously optimistic but will focus for now mainly on the week ahead.
We have hope for maybe a little something going into MLK weekend on Tug Hill and Adirondacks. Hope. Not certain but at least a chance we might get something to enjoy. And things will be trending in a better direction. This I agree on. How much is the debatable part.
So about our rides… I haven’t said much about them. Besides being busy fitting in the rides between work and tending to my wife and four kids, and other things going on outside work and riding it has been overwhelming.
TUG HILL RIDE WEDNESDAY 1/8 – I was done with work at Noon but couldn’t make it to Barrows until 1:30. I knew when I saw trailers parked on the roadside it would not be good. There were over 100 sleds at Highmarket alone. Barrows was busting at the seams. Full. Trying to find a place with trailers packed in so tight I got stuck in deep snow with glare ice underneath and had to drop the sleds in the middle of the lot and a few riders gave me a push out. After all that drama we set out at 2:15 PM. After two miles of cheese grater with constant 2’ moguls on North Road thanks to the 43,683 riders on the trail before us, we bailed on out the Tabolt to Montague plan and decided to try Michigan Mills to Osceola then north instead. The STH side had rollers but was much more manageable. Upon making it to the Camp 2/4 intersection a text came in from Chris Skipper at TRR… he advised we trailer back to Boondocks and ride the lower trails and Lee Gulf to get to Timberview. He was grooming and wanted to meet us on the trail. We hightailed it back to Barrows and were off the hill within minutes. 20 miles on the hill. I never thought I would load and unload twice in a day but we did and launched at 4:15 PM. It was an awesome rip up C7B to C5A. Flat and fast… some scratches from rocks and thin cover but only a few sleds. We found Skipper just before Snow Ridge at sunset and that where our live video and pics came from on FB. We then headed up a perfectly groomed Lee Gulf trail and made Timberview just after 5 PM.
I was shocked how busy Timberview wasn’t. They said it was mobbed at lunchtime, probably the busiest ever for a Wednesday, resembling a holiday weekend. But dinner time calmed down with most day riders having gone home. Our friends Levi and Deanna joined us, as well as Chris Rinck, president of STH, and his dad. We had a great time visiting then me, Zack, Chris and his dad rode together off the hill back to C5A below Snow Ridge before splitting off for the night. We made it back safely with 28 miles on the second launch from Boondocks, 48 for the day. We knew we had a lot more to go the next day.
ADIRONDACKS 1/9 – We trailered to Thendara to meet our friends Jim from Virginia and Dave from Massachusetts who came specifically to ride with us. Darrin from ilsnow.com and his son were also to ride with us but couldn’t come until lunchtime. So we made the calculation to ride from Old Forge to MRP past headquarters to Browns farm parking lot to meet Darrin and Darrin.
It was -5 F when we started and it was giving us fits. All of us were dealing with major icing on our glasses and our shields, our heated shield cords failed, Dave’s hand warmers stopped working. The first 15 to Big Moose Yamaha were rough from the cold. After a warmup break and buying new heated shield cords, we were in better shape heading past Inlet into MRP. Trails were good, even trail 5 at that point, but it was busy already with constant sled traffic. We went no more than a mile between groups of sleds all morning long. We hit two groomers in MRP and a gathering at Big T that resembled more of a tailgate party before a football game.
Close call #1 – Mile 19 starting down the mountain towards Cedar River Flow and Headquarters. Zack was leading 4 of us as he had the 40 miles previously, Jim and Dave following behind with me protecting the rear to make sure our guests were fine. Having already passed a few hundred sleds, most respectful and riding in control, only a few were hammering and cutting corners, dad (me) got the shock through the communicators he feared most. WHHHHOOOAAAAA!!! OH MY GOSH… WHAT THE…
My son is a very responsible rider and always rides defensively. I drilled it into him. It may have saved him here, coming round the curve to the right to see a pack of FIVE SLEDS in the middle to left side of the trail cutting the corner at full speed. His quick thinking saved a disaster. Based on his estimate and the fact they flew off the right side of the trail and two of the five sleds went into the snowbanks and nearly down the steep embankment off on their right… we estimated at least 70 MPH. They were riding way too fast and way too dangerously. How people think they can ride like this with no respect for the law and fellow riders on the trail I just can’t understand.
We made it safely to Browns Farm about 11:45 and found Grand Central Station. Sleds everywhere. Trying to find the Darrin’s, a needle in a haystack in a sea of trucks and trailers as far as the eye could see. We found them at the front of it trying to get in and talking to the old lady who lives there. She told them there was no more room and he had to leave. Darrin had a despondent look on his face and was upset saying he couldn’t drop there. I then asked nicely the old lady explaining we rode there to meet him and our friends came from out of state to meet up with them. At first she said there’s nothing she could do, then two trailers passed us leaving and she said Darrin could go look around and try to find a spot.
For 20 minutes we were numb and wondering what to do next with our ride party plans possibly blown up. By the grace of God Darrin found a spot and we launched at 12:15 PM heading back into the traffic jam in MRP.
Tons of sleds, most were riding well and respectfully. We got to big T, met some other riders and took some fun pics. After leaving big T was…
Close Call #2 – A group of three sleds came up on me real fast from behind and got close enough for me to see his hollow head with a lack of a brain. Next thing I know I hear a roar and see him passing me with skis fully off the ground and his two minions following right behind. He cut off Dave, our least experienced rider on top of a blind hill. Thankfully Jim and Dave handled the encounter calmly and defensively. You can read his encounter with Zack and the Darrin’s on the ilsnow blog in which Darrin Harr was a little less kind about his encounter and the fact those three turkeys nearly ran them off the trail.
Honestly between those two incidents on the MRP, I didn’t want to write my report. Between the insane amount of traffic and those careless riders, I was questioning my own judgement being out there. It certainly solidified my belief to ride during less traffic times and to hit less traffic areas. It was the heaviest traffic I’ve ever ridden in and I’m not sure personally if I want to do that again. I hate the thought of trailering up somewhere and bailing out if it’s overwhelmingly busy… but as I saw the chances of finding the portion of folks whom ride with no respect for laws and other people make me honestly question the risk/reward. Just being honest here.
We got through the worst of the traffic, made it to Daikers for an awesome dinner, then made it safely up the torture chamber known as Trail 5 after a busy day, back to the trailer with 125 miles safely done. And yes I felt it yesterday.
Not sure when we will ride again. I’m liking the idea of winter truly arriving across the state and trying to hit other clubs and areas locally and in less traveled areas. Not saying we won’t ride Tug Hill and/or Old Forge because we will… but I’m going to be more picky about it.
I know most people on here are good and respectful riders, helping clubs, etc but I don’t know what to do or say about the element of riders that are disrespectful and entitled. I think it will slowly kill the sport and/or people if not confronted with positive peer pressure from us riders and clubs that want to preserve the sport and each other for another day, another season.
I’m thankful for the business and clubs that got a boost from the riders and hope they all have a good season. We will continue to keep you posted on the weather and our travels and hope for a lot of snow in a lot of places to spread out the riders who want to enjoy the sport.
