We can’t afford to lose much more snow to keep riding. As you see above, there is not much left outside of the Southtowns and Chautauqua Ridge in WNY, Tug Hill, Adirondacks and a few places here and there…
Today will be the warmest day so far with many areas, even Tug Hill and the Adirondacks hitting the 40s. Thank goodness for a below freezing start and low sun angle which should mitigate damage to the remaining snowpack… for now…
A little cooler Christmas Eve and Christmas Day as expected but nothing like this past weekend. With no precipitation and low sun angle, again it will be a slow impact on snowpack. While it will hurt the Tug Hill and Adirondacks, it will hurt a lot more the approaches to these areas (north of the Thruway) and wipe out what is left south of the Thruway. For many clubs outside the high snow areas, it means unfortunately yet another Christmas and New Years holiday without rideable snow 🙁
Weather wise a few things are starting to come into focus. The first is our next shot at precipitation. It’s light, it’s Friday and may be a mix depending on temperatures. Thankfully nothing heavy although the Euro is stronger than the GFS.
After that the models go their separate ways. If you believe the GFS, my worst case scenario of blowtorch warmth (even warmer than today) along with significant precipitation from a storm hitting north and west. Meanwhile the Euro says… storm… what storm??? Folks, do the snow dance or something… if GFS is right, everything is TOAST. If Euro is right, there’s a chance some base could survive in the Tug Hill and Adirondacks when cold and snow return after the first of the year
Thankfully the long term is still looking better by New Years… although not as cold or as stormy as we need by New Years, the cold air is nearby, the ridge is building on the west coast and the pattern change still looks on track to happen between January 1-6, 2020. At least THAT GOALPOST HAS NOT MOVED…
Fingers crossed.
Our riding is done until after the pattern change after the New Year. With the holidays and personal plans, plus the fact we already got two good rides in, we can be patient and wait for better conditions.
Zack and I will have the next Trail Talk Podcast out tomorrow… a special one for Christmas Eve… and another extra for you guys to much on during the holidays.
Best,
Rich & Zack
