Riding opportunities likely to expand across Upstate NY by end of January
We finally have enough confidence in the current conditions, the short-term outlook (through this week) and the medium range outlook (1-2 week period) to say we expect snowmobiling opportunities to expand significantly across Upstate NY.
How we got here
It has been hard to be patient this winter. We got into it way earlier than usual with the coldest and snowiest November in Upstate NY in 15 years. Early December delivered good snow and cold leading to the best opening weekend and opening stretch in Old Forge/Town of Webb in recent memory with mid-season trail conditions in Old Forge/Inlet and Moose River Plains while Tug Hill had great conditions on the hill proper. We saw the signs in early December that mid-December and beyond would suck. Unfortunately, we were right. Temps around 50 degrees and 2 inches of rain on December 21 delivered an early Christmas gift to snowmobilers: a lump of coal that burned through and wiped everything out with the exception of limited spots on Tug Hill and in the Adirondacks, like Old Forge, Moose River Plains and Perkins Clearing. What was worse is many areas outside of the Tug and Adirondacks could have potentially ridden on marginal to good conditions had it not happened during hunting season. As soon as hunting season ended, so did our early cold and snow. Though we did get a White Christmas in many places, another big rain December 28 did more damage. The New Years Eve Monsoon knocked it back to just die-hards in a few limited places to start 2019. The return of cold and some ice and snow in the first 10 days of January was enough to revive Tug Hill proper and a good portion of the Adirondacks. This has set the stage for what we’ve all been waiting patiently for. Winter!
Where we are now
So here’s the map of snowcover across Upstate as of this January 13 report.
We drew a black line around the APPROXIMATE areas in which riding is happening (as we always say… it’s up to you to check with each individual club to see if they are open and safe to ride). The connection between the Tug and the Adirondacks is still broken. The foothills surrounding both the Tug and ADKs continue to be largely out of commission with very thin snow cover. We won’t even talk about south of the Thruway, or the Capital Region or Eastern NY. Meanwhile in WNY they got enough snow to cover and possibly ride… but not enough snow to open most clubs and not as much cold, meaning still muddy and runny under that snow. So why are things good right now for Upstate with a good outlook with no snow in the forecast for another few days and light snow at that?
Baby It’s Cold Outside!
Sustained cold returning along with the dry weather and sunshine is actually a huge help. We were so wet this fall, and with the meltdowns we got the ground thawed in most of Upstate outside of areas north of the Thruway. As the weather pattern has changed, so has this problem. Several days of no precip and cold temps (teens, single digits, some areas below zero) are finally letting all that water run off, settle down and FREEZE UP. And as you look at the extended range you are hard pressed to find much above freezing ANYTIME in the short term or the medium range across Upstate NY. The west coast ridge is making a comeback and shows no signs of breaking down as it will become better established the rest of this month. This means the ground is getting prepared… and when it snows it’s not going anywhere.
THE SNOW WILL COME… DON’T WORRY
Hard to say be patient because it’s mid-January and the usual mid-March meltdown is not as far away as us snow lovers would like… but be patient. When it gets here, it’s going to be good. We’ll break this down into several events:
1) Tuesday Night/Wednesday: A clipper system will scoot just off to our north and drag a front across the state, bringing generally light snows / snow showers / lake effect
2) Friday: An area of low pressure will move north out of the Tennessee valley, across Pennsylvania, and then off the Jersey coast. This would bring an area of snow across the Upstate. There are some differences in the modeling solutions with this, but some measurable snow is possible.
3) The potential “big” one over MLK Weekend. This one is looking better and better with each model run… but we have to keep in mind this is still 7 days out. Even if the heart of the snow misses the Upstate… significant lake effect snow and brutal cold (at or below zero for a few days) is likely behind the storm. Here’s a glimpse at what we’re looking at… which is starting to show some decent consistency. Keep in mind this is one snapshot of one model run at one moment in time seven days from now.
4) More clippers, cold and lake effect chances in the medium range with an active southern stream jet stream in play between MLK day and January 28th.
All it takes is one hit… even 6 inches. With the persistent cold and freeze setting into the ground, double digit snowfalls — while nice and preferred — will not be necessary to get trails open, packed down and get folks riding in areas besides the ADKs and the Tug Hill. Remember the big hits are nice but if you get 2” then 3” then another 3” and another 2”… that’s 10”. Not all at once but it adds up… and it all adds up to a good shot we will be riding more trails in NY before the end of January.
We can’t wait and we know you can’t either. As always, thanks for your trust in following our forecasts and outlooks tailored specifically to snowmobilers, snow lovers and travelers across Upstate during the winter season.
