Good evening!
Our weekend will be very un-winter-like. Low pressure will move northeast along the coast to a position south of Long Island, and then push nearly due-east away from the coast. In the meantime, a fairly robust southwesterly flow from the south-central US will bring milder air into the region.
Precipitation will break out during the pre-dawn hours from southwest to northeast on Saturday. While the warmer air will win the battle, the colder air settling in the valleys will be the last to erode away. So… a period of freezing rain is expected with a light glaze of ice for southwestern NY and in the Adirondacks. The icing will occur first to the SW and overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning for the Adirondacks. Everyone else should experience just rain for this event.
Rainfall amounts through Sunday evening should range from a quarter inch or less for areas west of a line from Rochester to Hornell… with amounts from a quarter inch to three quarters of an inch for the vast majority of central NY, the Adirondacks, and the Susquehanna Region… with upwards of an inch of rain for the Capital District southward through the southern Catskills.
We’ll see a brief break in the action later Sunday through Sunday night before the next system brings more rainy conditions to the Upstate on Monday. This will be caused by a southeasterly wind flow off the Atlantic setting up ahead of a storm system that will track through the northern Great Lakes. Eventually a cold front sweeps through… and colder air filters back into our area. This will change any leftover rain on Monday afternoon to snow… a period of snow (or snow showers) may bring some minor accumulations, especially north of the Thruway Monday night.
For the rest of next week, we’ll return to a more winterlike regime with several disturbances moving through the Great Lakes… bringing us rounds of snow showers and lake effect snows as we close out the month of November. One asterisk is the potential for a fairly significant system toward the end of NEXT week, but since we’re talking 7-8 days out, we’ll just leave that alone for now.
