Good evening once again!
Aside from some scattered snow showers off of Lake Erie and in the far northeast corner, we’ll have quiet conditions into Thursday. A clipper system will move off to our north and drag a cold front across the state. This will kick off some snow showers… and very quickly after that a rather remarkable, but very short-lived, lake effect response.
Model soundings tell us that plenty of moisture will be in place, as well as a sharp drop in temperatures as you climb. Winds will be as good as it can get… but only for a very short while. This all sets the stage for lake effect snow.
This is a model sounding for 4 PM Thursday, near Colden, NY. Southwest winds at the surface become west from 1-4 kilometers up. There’s all kinds of moisture available, and good lake-induced instability.
This is a model sounding for 10 PM Thursday on the western edge of the Tug. Everything about this screams “boom” for LES… the only thing keeping us from having astounding snow totals is the short-lived nature of this event. By this time a band of LES will be in the process of dropping back from the north. There is enough instability here that it wouldn’t be surprising to hear some rumbles (or a crash) of thunder. Someone call Jim Cantore!
This is a model wind forecast for Thursday evening, 7 PM and 10 PM. This illustrates how quickly this event will go from near perfect to … an end.
And finally, the model surface forecast, just to drive the point home. Notice the band off of Lake Ontario. Wow. If only it would stick around for a while.
“Dude… how much snow?!?!?!” We think that the Tug is going to get hit pretty good with this, on the order of 6-10 inches, maybe some localized 12-inch amounts. A large swath of 4-8 east and ENE of Lake Ontario. 4-8 for areas east of Lake Erie as well, perhaps a localized 9- or 10-inch snow total. Again, the only thing keeping this from being a huge event is how short-lived it’s going to be.
Enjoy it… because after what we get Thursday afternoon through Thursday night, and maybe a bit more over the weekend, that’s going to be IT.
Ok that’s all for tonight, take care, and thanks for supporting our site!
