Good evening snow lovers! Winter roars to life…
Abundant moisture from the surface to about 10,000 feet … plus … lake water temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s with air temperatures dropping well below freezing just off the deck … plus … a nearly perfectly wind flow from the surface to about 10,000 feet … equals … our first decent lake effect snows of the season.
We’re going somewhat conservative this early in the season, but it’s not unreasonable to expect as much as 5-7 inches of snow across the Tug Hill and south of Buffalo through early Sunday morning. NWS has posted a winter weather advisory for the typical areas.
Here is our snow forecast – 7 PM this evening through 7 AM Sunday morning:
If the graphic below looks familiar, it’s highly similar to one we posted last November. For new followers, or those new to the area, lake effect snows form when cold air blows over the open and warmer waters of the lakes. As the cold air flows over the water, moisture rises, cools, the air becomes unstable, and you get bands of lake effect snow (LES). Sometimes these bands can be very narrow and focused, other times the LES can be more “diffuse” and widespread. The LES is “enhanced” as the air continues to rise in higher elevations such as the Tug Hill Plateau and the Adirondack mountains. The Tug Hill is typically the bullseye for lake effect snows over the course of a season.
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After this event, our attention will turn to next week. An impressive area of low pressure will organize over the northern Gulf of Mexico, and set its sights on the northeast by Tuesday morning. The Euro brings our low to a position virtually over NYC by Tuesday afternoon. The GFS model is similar in appearance, with the low being just a tad stronger. All indications are that a large, and I mean LARGE precipitation shield will come with this storm system. The devil lies in the details. Modeling shows a trough moving into the Great Lakes. This will mean that colder air starts to pull into the western portion of this system. Right now it appears that we’ll start out with a good bit of rain early Tuesday transitioning to wet snow by Tuesday afternoon from west to east… and by Tuesday evening, if all goes as planned, we’re over to snow for a good portion of the region. Sure, by then the storm will be pulling away, but it stands to reason that some areas, especially higher elevations, could see a fairly decent “shovelable” snowfall next week.
Behind the Nor’Easter, unseasonably cold air will blast across the region and that means the potential for some good lake effect snows the middle of next week. Oh, and those below-normal temps should stick around all of next week.
