Apologies for the lack of posting… Zman and the Mrs have been sick and a ton going on besides. Thankfully it has been quiet of late.
We’ve enjoyed an unusually sunny, cold and quiet weekend across Upstate New York. Don’t forget it’s November, the cloudiest month of the year, so two days straight with any sun, much less full sunshine, doesn’t happen very often.
The weather gets unsettled here as a well advertised coastal storm battering the Carolina’s and the Virginia’s slowly moves north and is not fully in the jet stream flow… yet…
But as this big trough dives into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys tomorrow, it will begin to draw some Atlantic moisture and what’s left of that coastal low. This will be just enough to bring some LIGHT precip. But since it is at or above freezing aloft, and below freezing near the surface, a minor glaze of icing, just enough to create some travel problems, is possible Monday morning for eastern parts of Upstate (E of Roue 12 mainly)
But as this trough moves full bore towards Upstate NY Monday Night into Tuesday Morning, supported by a strengthening ridge out west, it may be just enough to flare up some precip over Upstate, especially east of I-81. By this point, it should be all snow. It may be just enough for a quick burst of snow which could accumulate and be enough to cause travel slowdowns going into Tuesday morning.
This means enough snow to mention and make a snowmap… by no means will it shatter any records or otherwise be noteworthy even by November standards… But it again will be enough to where extra time in these areas Tuesday AM will be a good idea for traveling/commuting.
So what about after that? Models are all over the place with weather towards end of next week and into Thanksgiving week. But all extended models now going for a “Greenland Block” which, if the Euro’s idea of a western ridge gets paired up with it, could mean a very active/stormy pattern going into Thanksgiving week to finish out what has been a very cold November. One thing seems certain… with a Greenland block developing, that will crush any warmups after a day or two and all but guarantee November temperatures stay below normal.
The good news for snowmobile season, which starts DECEMBER 9 for Old Forge and select areas up north, as late as DECEMBER 17 for most of the state (SO STAY OFF THE TRAILS…) this cold is already starting to freeze the ground down. This means less chance of super wet and muddy spots when the season starts… or they won’t last for as long. Remember… cold and snow help… it’s more than just snow.
